30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR COAST and VALLEY AREAS OF CALIFORNIA and SEASONAL OUTLOOK 2200 PDT Oct 31, 2016 GENERAL SYNOPSIS FOR CALIFORNIA… Our Fox outlook map shows support for only weak troughing along 21-28N, from central Baja out to 150W, and high pressure the north of this region at about 30-34N. In general, the wet atmospheric river pattern that we were seeing last week is now redirected into western Washington and British Columbia, with high pressure re-establishing across California and the Great Basin-Rockies. …BASIC PATTERN… a) The westerlies are becoming less active, and high pressure will be re-establishing across the western US and California. b) Support for a longwave trough in the east-central N Pacific (135-160W) will re-establish and continue, with high pressure at the West Coast. c) We have a dry break during 1-5th, and 8-16th, interrupted by a rain on late 5-6th and ending early on 7th. . …REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEEKS 1 AND 2 … Summary: Near Term N and Cntrl Calif… 4-24 Nov The NOAA/CPC outlook for 8-14 Nov shows a turn to warmer and drier than normal conditions thru Calif. In general, this pattern associated with with forcing from sea surface temperature anomalies is wetter for N and central Calif than this near term solution. This is supported by the latest CFSv2 forecast which suggests a turn to wetter than normal again about the 20-28th, or thereabouts, as suggested by Fox Weather’s Outlook Map for 4-24 Nov. 4-18th … N Calif: There is the dry interval during 4-5th followed by some rains on late 5th – 6th, and early 7th. Then it is is dry during 7-16th with warmer than normal conditions. There is a chance for frosts/freezes, despite mostly above normal temperatures. ...Delta Region- Northcentral Calif 4-18th : The period 4-5 Nov currently looks rain-free with valley fogs in the Delta and north San Joaquin Vly. Rain occurs on the 6th, then showers end early 7th. Valley fogs return 8-16th in the Delta. … Salinas Valley to San Luis Obispo Co… 4-18 Nov… Light rain occurs in N Monterey Co north on 5th, otherwise the period 4-16 Nov currently looks rain-free. Temperatures remain above normal for the most part. A few frosts occur in the mornings coldest locations of the south Salinas Valley, Paso Robles and Edna Valley. ..S Calif Avocado Area Santa Barbara Co to San Diego Co 4-18 Nov.. Dry and warm on Nov 4th. A little drizzle pushes past Pt Conception on the 6th but without significant rain. On about 8-9th and again 15-16th offshore flow and local Santa Ana winds occur. Watch for frosts and light freezes in those periods between Santa Ana events on 10-11th, 14th, and as the Santa Ana winds end on 17-19th in the dry airmass. ....WEEKS 3 AND 4: Nov 19-Dec 2 ... Nov 19th thru Dec 2.. N and Central Calif-Monterey In general, Nov is still expected to be drier than normal, but with some subtropical rains in Oregon coast areas south to Cape Mendocino. During Nov 21-28 we are more likely to see a rainy period again, with subtropical rains in the north followed by showers with continued high snow levels..with snow above 7000ft in the SierraNV. After frosts/freezes on about 16-18th, gusty downslope or NE winds develop 18-20th. Nov 19-Dec 2 ... (S Calif Avocado San Luis Obispo S)- Mostly fair with cold overnights and some frosts on 17-20th . There will be a chance for some frontal passages with showers during 22-29th, then some frosts on 30th – Dec 2. SEASONAL OUTLOOK/La Nina UPDATE...Dec 3– Jan 30 During this period, the cold La Nina anomaly will continue near maximum extent in the equatorial east and central Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies support weakening of troughs upon approach to Calif, but deepening of troughs into the Great Basin. The CFSv2 guidance suggests much drier and warmer than normal for Dec and Jan. For SOCAL..there is higher than normal risk for dry windy Santa Anas alternating with a few periods of sparse showers in Dec and Jan, and rainfall remaining well below normal in SOCAL mid January onward after some rains early in Jan, and during 22-28 Dec. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Outlook: Imperial/Coachella/Yuma Valleys... Nov 30 – Dec 31 ... Mainly below normal rainfall. Recurrent dry and windy periods. A few cold showery periods are possible during 20-30 Dec during a cold period with a few windy cold fronts, and some frosts, especially cold fronts, showers, or as dry upper lows form over the deserts. Alan Fox…Fox Weather, LLC Copyright © 2016 Fox Weather, LLC